The Ohio Bobcats and Akron Zips are two hot teams, but Ohio has covered the last three meetings and had a nice road win at Akron earlier this year, and the Bobcats now get the call at home.
A battle of two very hot teams highlights the MAC action on the NCAA Basketball matchups Tuesday night, as the Akron Zips (19-10 overall, 9-5 conference) pay a visit to the Ohio Bobcats (16-13 overall, 8-6 conference) at the Ohio Convocation Center in Athens, OH at 7:00 ET.
Something has to give here as Akron has won seven straight games both straight up and against the NCAA Basketball odds while home standing Ohio has won four straight games and six out of seven straight up and five in a row against the spread. Ohio also won in Akron earlier this season, and we are looking for the Bobcats to complete the season sweep at home.
The NCAA Basketball latest line from Pinnacle Sports for this contest is Ohio -1½ at home, with the betting odds set at -108.
The only loss for Ohio in the last seven games was by just two points on the road at Western Michigan, covering the number as three-point underdogs, and the three wins here at home during this streak have been by an average of +10.0 points. Yes, the Bobcats are only 9-8 straight up at home this season, but this team is obviously improving as the season has gone on and they have now won their last four games here in Athens since losing to the Buffalo Bulls January 22.
The Bobcats also seem to have the Zips’ number, as they have now covered three straight meetings vs. Akron with two of those covers coming in Akron and the other coming when they knocked the Zips out of the MAC Tournament 81-75 last season. Ohio now finally gets a chance to continue that mastery here at home for a change.
According to the Pomeroy Ratings, Ohio ranks a very decent 99th in the country in offensive efficiency, averaging 1.05 points per possession. That figure is significantly better than the national average of 1.01 points per touch. The Bobcats are also above average in effective field goal percentage at 50.5 percent, thanks to some very good three-point shooting, as they rank 71st in the last at 36.6 percent.
Furthermore, the Bobcats’ offensive numbers are up over the last five games, during which time they are averaging a whopping 78.8 points on 46.4 percent shooting and a blistering 41.2 percent from behind the three point arc.
Now the Zips have won seven straight, but as hot as the Zips have been, they still lag behind Ohio in offensive efficiency, ranking 158th at just an average 1.02 points per possession. They also trail the Bobcats slightly in effective field goal percentage at an even 50.0 percent, and they are also slightly behind in three-point shooting, although the Zips do rank very solid 85th at 36.0 percent.
So the offensive percentages are very similar between these teams, with Ohio holding only slight advantages in each category, although the gaps may be a tad wider tonight with Ohio playing at home. One crucial difference between these clubs though is that if Akron does not hit its shots initially, it does not figure to get many second chances.
This is because the Zips rank just 286th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage, grabbing their own missed shots only 28.8 percent of the time. By contrast, the Bobcats figure to get more garbage points, as their offensive rebounding percentage of 33.3 percent is above the national average of 32.3 percent.
Now at the other end of the court, the Ohio defense was the main reason the team was off to a 10-12 start in NCAA Basketball betting, as the Bobcats rank only 245th in defensive efficiency, surrendering 1.06 points per possession overall. However, they have played much better defense at home this year, allowing 69.5 points per game on 43.3 percent shooting, and one area where Ohio has been quite solid is in forcing turnovers.
The Ohio defense is forcing turnovers on 22.2 percent of opponents’ possessions,, which ranks 65th in the country and is well above the national average of 20.3 percent. While that pressure defense only created 13 Akron turnovers in the first meeting this season, it did force the Zips into quite a few bad shots as they hit on only 23 of 62 field goal attempts for 37.1 percent.
Akron will probably shoot better than that here, but probably not well enough to prevent an Ohio cover on the NCAA Basketball betting odds at home.
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